SHFE tin's volatile pattern amid supply bottlenecks and weak demand [SMM tin futures brief comment]

On July 14, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) exhibited a trend of fluctuating rangebound and upward, closing at 266,720 yuan/mt, up 0.41% from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuation range remained between 265,000-268,000 yuan/mt, with a trading volume reaching 21.207 billion yuan. Over the past five trading days, it has accumulated a gain of 1.21%, continuing the recent trend of mild rebound. From the perspective of market trading activity, after the price rebounded to above 266,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchase willingness significantly weakened, with most restocking carried out on a "small-batch, multi-batch" basis to meet just-in-time demand. Smelters continued to hold prices and limit sales, but actual transactions were constrained. In terms of brand premiums, the market showed a differentiated pattern: small-brand tin was priced at parity to a premium of 400 yuan/mt against the August contract, while Yunnan-branded tin commanded a premium of 400-800 yuan/mt. The brand premium effect still existed but had narrowed compared to the previous period.

Overnight trading of tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was firm, closing at $33,565/mt on the previous trading day, up 0.34%. Market participation improved but remained cautious overall. LME tin inventory continued to run at historically low levels, with current inventory levels down more than 40% compared to the same period last year.

The market's focus has shifted to the launch of LME's Hong Kong warehouse operations on July 15, which may change the logistics pattern of tin ingots in the Asian region, particularly having a potential impact on cross-market arbitrage and inventory flows in South China (a key inventory concentration area). From a technical perspective, the short-term support level for the most-traded SHFE tin contract is at the 260,000 yuan/mt integer mark, while the resistance level is at the previous high area of 268,000-270,000 yuan/mt. LME tin prices face strong resistance at the $33,000-34,000/mt level.